What is the evolution of Hamas?

The sophisticated and coordinated attacks by Hamas on October 7th have led many analysts to reconsider the hypotheses about the group's intentions and capabilities. One of the main questions is whether Hamas, which has never successfully carried out attacks abroad in its 36-year history, can transform from a purely regional threat to a global one.

The ideology of Hamas

Hamas is a movement deeply rooted in the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has always had a vision of jihad as a tool of struggle and emancipation specifically linked to the Palestinian issue. The movement has avoided extending its struggle to a global context, unlike groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS, which have embraced the idea of a global war against the enemies of Islam. This ideological divergence has led the Islamic State (ISIS) to strongly criticize Hamas, labeling it as apostate for its participation in "democratic" elections and for its alliance with Shiite Iran, perceived as incompatible with the Sunni interpretation of Islam.

Originally dedicated to the destruction of the State of Israel, as expressed in its founding charter of 1987. Although the charter was revised in 2017 to allow for the possibility of a two-state solution, the group remains committed to "the complete liberation of Palestine, from the river to the sea." Therefore, while its ideology is steeped in references to jihad, it has never embraced the global jihad promoted by al-Qaeda, Islamic State (ISIS), or their affiliates worldwide.

Although Hamas and the Islamic State (ISIS) have different ideologies, the attack on October 7 showed similarities in the acts of violence committed, with methods that are reminiscent of those often associated with the Islamic State in their brutality. These actions have sparked debates and questions about the nature of the violence perpetrated by Hamas and the possible influences on its tactical approach, despite the ideological and strategic differences.

Thwarted attack plans

Despite Hamas never having successfully carried out attacks abroad, several plots connected to the organization have been foiled. In 1997, three individuals arrested in New York for planning an attack on the subway were investigated for possible ties to Hamas. In November 2003, Jamal Akal, a Canadian citizen born in Gaza, was arrested by Israeli authorities while trying to leave Gaza to return to Canada, where he would presumably have carried out terrorist attacks against Jewish communities in the United States and Canada. Akal pleaded guilty and served four years in prison in Israel before being sent back to Canada, although he claimed to have been tortured to sign a confession.

International reaction

The arrest of seven individuals in Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands, suspected of preparing terrorist attacks against Jewish institutions in Europe, has raised international concern. Three suspects detained in Berlin and another in Rotterdam are alleged members of Hamas with ties to the al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas. According to German authorities, the suspects had been ordered to locate an existing weapons depot, which would have facilitated future attacks. The orders reportedly came from Hamas leadership based in Lebanon. These activities indicate a possible new phase for the group, with potential significant implications for global security.

Massimo Cozzolino