Coup d'état in Niger: risk of increase in jihadist extremism in the African region of the Sahel

The recent coup in Niger could have negative consequences on the stability of the Sahel region of Africa, as it could increase the recruitment capacity of al-al-Qāʿida affiliated jihadist extremists. In particular, the military and terrorist organization of jihadista Jamaʿat Nuṣrat al-Islām wa-l muslimīn (JNIM) could take advantage of the coup and increase its influence in the region.

JNIM was created in 2017 during the war in Mali, through the merger of other regional terrorist groups such as al-Murābiṭūn, and recognizes itself under the aegis and banner of the al-Qāʿida terrorist organization. In 2019, the group was headed by Iyad Ag Ghali and numbered around 2,000 fighters, according to estimates by the French newspaper Le Figaro.

The expansion of violent extremism in the Sahel is attributed to persistently weak governance, democratic decline, legitimacy deficits and human rights abuses. The 4 consecutive military coups were also another problem. International involvement began in earnest in 2013 when French forces entered Mali at the request of the Malian government. Despite increased international involvement, the campaign against the militants has caused widespread violence and the displacement of millions of people, leading to a humanitarian crisis.. una crisi umanitaria.

According to the Institute for African Security Studies (ISS Africa), JNIM finances itself through various illicit activities, including arms trafficking, poaching, extortion and gold mining in the area. The group's self-financing capacity makes it particularly dangerous and difficult to counter.

In this context, the recent coup d'état in Niger could contribute to generating more violence and instability in the African Sahel region, favoring jihadist groups such as JNIM and undermining international efforts to ensure security in the area.

The crisis in Niger and in the other Sahelian countries represents a serious threat to the local populations, the economies of the countries involved and to the fight against terrorist penetration. The inability of the international community, especially France, the EU and the US, to understand the new dynamics on the ground has contributed to this situation.

At the same time, Turkey, Russia and China have gained ground in the region, thanks to their greater strength and speed in achieving their goals. The recent Russo-Ukrainian war has made the processes that have already been underway in Africa for years even more evident. To regain credibility and respect in crisis areas, we need to act pragmatically and address the realities on the ground, without imposing excessive conditionalities. The rift between the Nigerien Defense and Security Forces and Western allies has revealed a loss of mutual trust.

Niger plays a role of great international importance, not only for its uranium reserves (which represent over 7% of world reserves), but also for its strategic position in the fight against jihadist groups operating in the Maghreb and against migrant smugglers. The destabilization of Niger could have serious consequences for the security of Europe, but what is equally worrying is the increase in influence of Russia and Wagner in Africa.

Editorial Team